Author: business

  • FTAV’s further reading

    FTAV’s further reading

    Note to subscribers: compiling a reading list is particularly tough right now because a lot of the notably good/bad/important/interesting articles are about the same thing. Rather than over-curate we’re trialing a content warning label. Anything marked 🔶 means “CW: Trump, etc”

    Elsewhere on Thursday . . .

    — Payoffs and probabilities (Morgan Stanley PDF)

    — Delaware decides Delaware law has no value (Ann Lipton)

    — The Many Sources of Economic Rent – Part 1: Intellectual Property (The Daily Renter)

    — From comedy to brutality (NY Review of Books 🔶)

    — DOGE Claimed it Saved $8 Billion in One Contract. It Was Actually $8 Million (NYT 🔶)

    — It’s Easy To Save Billions In Taxpayer Funds When Everything Is Made Up (Techdirt 🔶)

    — So based (Garbage Day 🔶)

    — Adam Przeworski’s diary (Substack 🔶)

    — The rotting of the conservative mind (Alex Massie 🔶)

    — The secret pattern (Granta)

    — Richard Dawkins interviews ChatGPT (Substack)

    — What If We Kissed in the Smoldering Ruins of America (Today in Tabs)

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  • What is fiduciary duty anyway?

    What is fiduciary duty anyway?

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    There was much excitement (in rarefied circles) when prime minister Sir Keir Starmer — no less — announced he would “unlock billions of investment” by making it easier for companies to access so-called trapped surpluses in defined benefit pension schemes.

    The stakes look high. The Government estimates around three quarters of the UK’s 4,974 corporate DB schemes currently have assets in excess of pensions owed — to the tune of £160bn — but the rules make it difficult for trustees and businesses to make use of these overshoots.

    Details of exactly how surpluses may be used under policymakers’ plans will be published this spring (read: any time between next week and July).

    But a number of pension prognosticators have already predicted that whatever the details, the move will have little impact.

    This is partly owing to institutional trauma following years of paying to plug pension deficits — which were only reversed two or three years ago, after a rapid rise in bond yields dramatically improved scheme funding levels.

    It’s also because trustees have and will continue to have “an overarching fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of their members,” according to the Government press release, which adds:

    When considering surplus extraction, trustees must fund the scheme and invest its assets in a way that leads to members receiving their full benefits.

    Some trustees told the FT it would be difficult to argue that releasing pension scheme surplus back to employers (even if pension payments were increased too) is in the interests of the scheme members.

    But a dive into the case law suggests the Government’s explanation may be too much of a simplification — one that repeats a common misunderstanding of the nature of trustee duties.

    Philip Goss, partner at Linklaters, says a trustee’s true fiduciary duty is best described as exercising their powers “for the proper purpose for which they were given” — not simply to act in the best interests of members.

    The “best interests of members” idea comes from a case in 1984 where the union-appointed trustees of the Mineworkers’ Pension Scheme tried (unsuccessfully) to stop the scheme from investing in energies that competed with coal.

    The judge told them that:

    The starting point is the duty of trustees to exercise their powers in the best interests of the present and future beneficiaries of the trust, holding the scales impartially between different classes of beneficiaries. This duty of the trustees towards their beneficiaries is paramount. They must, of course, obey the law; but subject to that, they must put the interests of their beneficiaries first. When the purpose of the trust is to provide financial benefits for the beneficiaries, as is usually the case, the best interests of the beneficiaries are normally their best financial interests. In the case of a power of investment, as in the present case, the power must be exercised so as to yield the best return for the beneficiaries, judged in relation to the risks of the investments in question; and the prospects of the yield of income and capital appreciation both have to be considered in judging the return from the investment.

    This may look like a statement that the trustees should use their powers in the best interests of members, but, according to Goss, that is “almost certainly” not what the judge meant.

    That’s because in schemes where the employer covers the difference between the total cost of providing the promised pension benefits and the contributions made by employees (such as the mineworkers’ scheme) the person who gains the most from higher yielding investments is actually the employer. In other words, they’re beneficiaries too.

    Other cases reinforce that the “best interests of members” idea is too simple a statement of trustees’ duties.

    The case of Alexander Forbes v Halliwell (2003) concerned the distribution of a surplus when a scheme was wound up. The court made it clear that trustees could properly pay part of the surplus to the employer even though they could have used the whole amount for the benefit of members.

    The judge held that:

    In exercising its discretion over surplus the trustees were not bound solely to consider the interests of the members, but were entitled and indeed bound to consider the interests of the employers as well: indeed, if its obligation were solely to consider the interests of the members it was difficult to see how any surplus could have been allowed to be returned to the employers at all.

    In the case of the Merchant Navy Ratings Pension Fund in 2015, it was argued on behalf of members that the trustee should have acted with a single-minded view to the best interests of the members.

    After hearing lengthy arguments and considering the relevant case law in detail, the judge (Mrs Justice Asplin, who is now in the Court of Appeal) rejected arguments that the interests of the employer could only be taken into account in limited circumstances and that the “best interests” duty is a paramount, standalone duty.

    She confirmed the importance of “proper purpose” and referred to an article by the late Lord Nicholls of Birkenhead, which said “it is necessary to decide first what is the purpose of the trust and what benefits were intended to be received by the beneficiaries”.

    “The judge recognised that a freestanding ‘best interests’ duty, which only considered the interests of members, would lead to absurd results — for example in a scheme where the trustees had unilateral powers to augment benefits,” says Dawn Heath, partner at Freshfields.

    To make matters more complicated, the scope of trustees’ powers and (in legalese) “the proper purpose of those powers” will vary depending on the particular scheme’s rules and the way in which different, often complex, provisions of those rules interact.

    This could make a new freestanding surplus power, if that is what the Government proposes, “helpful,” Heath adds.

    This may not matter much. It could be that making surplus extraction easier has little economic impact, because the true value of a surplus is only known when the last pension is paid or a scheme sells its assets and pension obligations to an insurer. Plus, the data showing surpluses may be subject to revisions — as we were reminded of last year, when the Pension Protection Fund, the UK’s pensions lifeboat, wiped £283bn off its defined-benefit funding estimates.

    But trustees may not be able to use their fiduciary duty as an excuse to prevent companies from accessing their share.

    A spokesperson from the Department of Work and Pensions said:

    We recognise the critical role pension scheme trustees play in safeguarding members’ benefits, and the existing extensive case law surrounding trustee duties.

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  • FTAV’s further reading

    FTAV’s further reading

    FTAV’s further reading

  • FTAV’s Friday charts quiz

    FTAV’s Friday charts quiz

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

    On Monday, after revealing nobody had survived his gauntlet of chart cruelty, Robin wrote:

    Bryce is doing the charts quiz later this week

    Which was a lie.

    Unfortunately, instead of one of Britain’s finest restaurant reporters you have, uh, Louis.

    Rules are the regular ones: identify the three charts below, email your answers to [email protected], putting “Quiz” in the subject line. We usually name everyone who gets all three correct so let us know if you want to remain anonymous.

    We’ll draw one winner randomly from the pool of correct guesses that arrive by lunchtime Monday, and they’ll get a T-shirt. Bon appétit. With https://du88.com/, you can bet on your favorite sports events, including football, basketball, tennis, and more, from the comfort of your own home.

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  • About all this ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ chatter

    About all this ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ chatter

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    Will the latest iteration of the Trump administration’s supercharged “flood the zone with sh*t” strategy be a global macroeconomic mega-deal — an agreement that outdoes even the famous 1985 Plaza Accord in ambition?

    That was a deal between the US and its major trading partners struck at the Plaza Hotel (of Home Alone 2: Lost in New York fame) to engineer a dollar devaluation, after Fed chair Paul Volcker’s war on inflation had sent the greenback soaring. It was a notable success, in an era of damp-squib international agreements.

    Donald Trump (also of Home Alone 2: Lost in New York fame) already demonstrated an affinity for economic history by purchasing the Plaza Hotel in 1988 (the deal ended up in bankruptcy). He really wants a weaker dollar. Conveniently, he also owns the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, which might be a profitable good venue for a new accord.

    Versions of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” idea have therefore been floating around ever since the first Trump presidency. His victory in November naturally led them to resurface. Alphaville mentioned the possibility in our how-to-devalue-the-dollar guide the day after the 2024 election.

    The chatter then died down, but has now apparently come back on the news agenda. Most of the basic contours of the supposed plan seem to be derived from this November 2024 paper by Stephen Miran.

    Miran is currently a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, but he served a stint in the US Treasury during the first Trump administration, and is now Trump’s nominee for chair of the Council of Economic Advisors. And you can’t fault his ambition:

    The next Trump term presents potential for sweeping change in the international economic system and possible accompanying volatility. It is important for investors to understand the tools that might be employed for such purposes, as well as the means by which government may attempt to avoid unwelcome consequences. This essay attempts to provide a user’s guide: a survey of some tools, their economic and market consequences, and steps that can be taken to mitigate unwanted side effects.

    Wall Street consensus that an Administration has no means by which to affect the foreign exchange value of the dollar, should it desire to do so, is wrong. Government has many means of doing so, both multilaterally and unilaterally. No matter what approach it takes, however, attention must be paid to steps to minimise volatility. Assistance from trading partners or the Federal Reserve can be helpful in doing so.

    In any case, because President Trump has shown tariffs are a means by which he can successfully extract negotiating leverage — and revenue — from trading partners, it is quite likely that tariffs are used prior to any currency tools. Because tariffs are USD-positive, it will be important for investors to understand the sequencing of reforms to the international trading system. The dollar is likely to strengthen before it reverses, if it does so.

    There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimise adverse consequences.

    It is tempting to discount the whole thing, as this is a ~cough~ freewheeling administration with a multitude of hangers-on throwing policy proposals around like confetti. Some aspects — such as forcing countries to swap their Treasuries for century bonds — seem a bit fantastical. It’s essentially a glorified protection racket scheme with some lipstick.

    Even Miran noted that restructuring the global financial system will require “careful planning, precise execution and attention to steps to minimise adverse consequences”. And, let’s face it, these aren’t qualities that the first or (thus far) second Trump administrations have demonstrated a lot of.

    Moreover, the world is a radically different place today than it was back when the original Plaza Accord was struck in 1985. Mark Sobel, a former US Treasury grandee, wrote in December that a Mar-a-Lago Accord was “far-fetched and implausible”.

    However, the chatter can’t be ignored completely. The Trump administration has clearly shown a remarkable willingness to slap tariffs on friends and eject them from its security blanket. China has its own struggles right now.

    Some countries might therefore be willing to swallow some sort of Mar-a-Lago Accord to avoid the drama. As Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ wrote last month:

    We agree that the conditions are not ripe now for a Mar-a-Lago Accord, but the circumstances could change in 2-3 quarters’ time. Also, our sense is that Beijing’s aversion to participating in such a co-ordinated effort to drive down the dollar may not be as strong as before, especially when threatened with punitive tariffs.

    John Connally — US Treasury Secretary in 1971 — famously said, ‘The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem.’ While this quote is still valid, the Plaza Accord in 1985 was an episode where other stakeholders participated to right a wrong in the dollar’s value. The interventions in 2000 to purchase euros was a similar agreement, which also addressed a stark imbalance in currency markets.

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  • FTAV’s further reading

    FTAV’s further reading

    FTAV’s further reading

  • Someone forgot to search-replace an M&A announcement again

    Someone forgot to search-replace an M&A announcement again

    Someone forgot to search-replace an M&A announcement again

  • Pre-product AI ‘company’ now valued at $30bn

    Pre-product AI ‘company’ now valued at $30bn

    Stay informed with free updates

    Venture capitalists have always been happy to back pre-profit companies. Back in the halcyon ZIRP era, they became happy to finance pre-revenue companies. But at least even Juicero, Wag and the Fyre Festival had an actual product.

    From Bloomberg over the weekend:

    OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever is raising more than $1 billion for his start-up at a valuation of over $30 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter — vaulting the nascent venture into the ranks of the world’s most valuable private technology companies.

    Greenoaks Capital Partners, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, is leading the deal for the start-up, Safe Superintelligence, and plans to invest $500 million, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. Greenoaks is also an investor in AI companies Scale AI and Databricks Inc.

    The round marks a significant valuation jump from the $5 billion that Sutskever’s company was worth before, according to Reuters, which earlier reported some details of the new funding. The financing talks are ongoing and the details could still change.

    OK, so a jump from a $5bn valuation less than half a year ago to $30bn must mean that Safe Superintelligence has an absolutely killer product right?

    SSI focuses on developing safe AI systems. It isn’t generating revenue yet and doesn’t intend to sell AI products in the near future.

    “This company is special in that its first product will be the safe superintelligence, and it will not do anything else up until then,” Sutskever told Bloomberg in June. “It will be fully insulated from the outside pressures of having to deal with a large and complicated product and having to be stuck in a competitive rat race.”

    Here are some other things valued at about $30bn or less:

    United Airlines, Société Générale, Maersk, Pernod Ricard, Publicis, Commerzbank, Ryanair, Prudential, Vodafone, Legal & General, Pearson, Reddit, EQT, Martin Marietta, Tradeweb, Warner Bros, Estée Lauder . . . you probably get the drift by now.

    Further reading:
    — This is nuts. When’s the crash? (FTAV)

  • And the FTAV charts quiz winner is…

    And the FTAV charts quiz winner is…

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

    Last Friday’s charts quiz asked you to identify three charts.

    Here’s what those charts were (and are):

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    That’s the contribution to UK CPI by food and non-alcoholic beverages, a number WHICH WILL BE NEVER SUBJECT TO FUTURE REVISIONS. Womp. Every entrant got this.

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    That’s the share price of (John) Wood Group. Womp. Every entrant also got this.

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    Chart 3 separated the wheat from the chaff, with various guesses for various bits of various indices. But there was one was correct: industrial companies within MSCI’s All-Country World Index (we let Industrials in [any world index] slide because we did only ask for the sector).

    Twelve entrants managed to get all three correct: Jack Stockdale, Ed Roe, Luke Ashford, Gregory Boggis, David Jackson, Johannes Rosenbusch, Sam Lee, John Finseth, Erik Johnsson, Jack Ford, James Ritossa and Charles Callaghan.

    But there can only be one winner. To the wheel…

    . . . which picked Gregory Boggis of Lansdowne Partners. He gets the dub, the glory and the T-shirt. The charts quiz will return on Friday (by which point the FTAV team may be totally sick of charts).

  • Hedge funds are feeling their oats

    Hedge funds are feeling their oats

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    Hedge funds are on a roll again. That’s the main takeaway from Goldman Sachs’ latest review of regulatory filings and their own prime brokerage business.

    The average US long-short equity hedge fund is up 3 per cent this year, roughly keeping pace with the S&P 500 thanks to the performance of their favourite longs.

    Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP basket of stocks that are the most popular in hedge funds’ 13F filings has returned 10 per cent this year. These longs are now on their strongest bout of outperformance in four years.

    Goldman’s measures of hedge fund herding remain near their record highs, despite many funds shuffling out of the Mag7 stocks lately. However, the most interesting aspect of Goldman’s review is that single-stock shorting seems to be on the rise again.

    The median hedge fund short interest in S&P 500 stocks collapsed in the post-financial-crisis world and hit record lows after the GameStop shenanigans of 2021, with many instead shifting their shorting to broader indices. Prominent short sellers like Jim Chanos and Nate Anderson have thrown in the towel over recent years.

    However, Goldman’s research indicates that short interest in the median S&P 500 has rebounded from a low of about 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent, with activity particularly high in consumer staples stocks like Kroger.

    Shorting remains subdued compared to the historical average — and performance is still a net drag on hedge fund returns — but the bounce is intriguing.

    Moreover, the combination of more shorting and big longs has lifted gross hedge fund exposure to record highs, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage estimates.

    Net exposure remains well below the highs seen in 2021 and 2018, thanks to broader market hedging, but as you can see it is creeping up.

    And when it comes to marketwide trading capacity — in terms of how much of their balance sheet that investment banks can rent out to hedge funds — it is swelling gross exposure that is interesting.

    Anecdotally we’ve heard rising concerns about how much balance sheet banks are now extending to hedge fund clients. The danger is that even small shocks can then become quite violent (viz, the market reaction to DeepSeek) and meaningful shocks can translate into an industry-wide margin call.

    UPDATE: Goldman has kindly made the full report public for Alphaville readers, and you can find it here.

    Further reading:
    — The hedge fund-bank nexus (FTAV)